Andy Murray, the biggest Jekyll and Hyde performer on the men's tour (besides perhaps David Nalbandian) ousted Roger Federer yesterday in the FIRST ROUND of the Dubai International, marking a second consecutive defeat for King Fed, as his last competitive match was his semifinal defeat at the hands of the Djoker in the Australian Open.
So what does this mean?
On a technical level, shockingly it means that Federer's stranglehold on the world # 1 ranking is in actual jeopardy this week, as his 1st round loss costs him 300 points since he won this event last season and will thus be unable to defend those points after this early exit. If Nadal wins this event (and I would project there is a 40% chance of that) then Roger could very well be the # 2 player in the world behind Nadal entering the Masters tournament at Indian Wells (which Rafa won last year, and the pressure would be immense for him to defend both that title and his # 1 ranking...a scneario that could see Nadal cede the ranking right back). But this is all contingent on the future, and to be honest, if it doesn't happen this week, it's likely to happen during the early summer clay court run-ups to Roland Garros, unless Nadal were to fail to defend his clay title points (unlikely). Ultimately, what is clear, is that Roger Federer cannot be # 1 forever, or at least he can't possibly go every week of every year for the better part of four years without EVER conceding top spot, can he?
More significantly, on a psychological level, this loss shows a real chink in the armor, and has to be giving the rest of the men's field loads of confidence that the undisputed best in the world can be beaten. Is Federer starting to fade? Doubtful. But it is possible that he may be losing some measure of his ultra-dominance, which in and of itself is a major development.
All things being equal, 2008 just adopted even more intrigue than it already had, with this "Federer Watch" now promising to add a lot of talking points to not just the three remaining slams, but to every big tournament the King competes in.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
Novak Breaks Through
A Serbian and a Siberian were the victors at the 2008 Australian Open. Novak Djokovic broke through to win his first grand slam, dropping the first set to Tsonga but then seizing control of the match with consistent baseline play and impenetrable serving. Tsonga may well have been the story of the tournament, but Djokovic deserves the most credit. With two straight Slam finals appearances included in four straight Slam semis runs, the Djoker is officially arrived. No longer is the talk about men's tennis "Federer, Nadal and everyone else." Now Novak must be named along with the top two players in the world before mention of "everyone else."
Maria Sharapova thoroughly obliterated her competition on the women's side, and came away with her third Grand Slam title as a result. Ana Ivanovic carried the flag far for Serbian women (and certainly performed better in her second finals appearance than her first) but in the end just did not have enough against Maria. Sharapova seems fitter and healthier than ever, and is still only 20 years old, so we culd be looking at a wonderful 2008 for the Siberian.
Now we have a slight lull for Davis Cup competitions and various hard court tournaments before the real clay court season and French Open tune-ups begin. We'll update as much as we can. The Tennis Enthusiast does have a particular interest in the year's first men's Masters Series event, the Pacific Life Championships in Indian Wells. We should be in attendance the first weekend, and will be able to provide first person commentary of the tournament. Stay tuned...
Maria Sharapova thoroughly obliterated her competition on the women's side, and came away with her third Grand Slam title as a result. Ana Ivanovic carried the flag far for Serbian women (and certainly performed better in her second finals appearance than her first) but in the end just did not have enough against Maria. Sharapova seems fitter and healthier than ever, and is still only 20 years old, so we culd be looking at a wonderful 2008 for the Siberian.
Now we have a slight lull for Davis Cup competitions and various hard court tournaments before the real clay court season and French Open tune-ups begin. We'll update as much as we can. The Tennis Enthusiast does have a particular interest in the year's first men's Masters Series event, the Pacific Life Championships in Indian Wells. We should be in attendance the first weekend, and will be able to provide first person commentary of the tournament. Stay tuned...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
The Unexpected
Wow. So much for a Federer-Nadal final... what was hoped for by many and anticipated to be another classic matchup between the world's 1 & 2 players has been nullified by two extremely talented upstarts: Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
In the first semi, Tsonga absolutely crushed Nadal, but the weird thing was that Nadal did not play poorly. He had less than 10 errors in three sets, but was simply overpowered by Tsonga's baseline blitzes and delicately stupendous back-handed drop-volleys. Nadal has always been vulnerable on hard courts to flat ball hitters with tons of power, but Tsonga's performance was ridiculous in the way he combined power and touch. Nadal had no chance, especially once it was clear that his patented and potent backhand passing shots down the line were just being drop-volleyed for winners every time.
The second semi somehow upstaged the first, a feat deemed nigh impossible after Tsonga's triumph, but any time the dominant figure in the game and suggested best of all time loses, it's the story of the tournament. Roger's illness before the Open, which prevented him from playing any warm-up tournaments, proved ultimately fatal to his chances in Melbourne, as his normal quickness and athleticism seemed to be lacking just enough for him to be vulnerable. Of course, only the Serbians were able to expose this vulnerability, with Djokovic proving more adept than Tipsarevic at taking down # 1. Novak learned from his loss to Federer in the U.S. Open final, and realized he would have to be able to capitalize on his few chances. He did. And he won in straight sets. Amazing.
So now we have an interesting matchup with Djokovic and Tsonga in the final, where, one would think Novak is the prohibited favorite, but I'm done betting against the Frenchman. Will be fun to watch.
In the first semi, Tsonga absolutely crushed Nadal, but the weird thing was that Nadal did not play poorly. He had less than 10 errors in three sets, but was simply overpowered by Tsonga's baseline blitzes and delicately stupendous back-handed drop-volleys. Nadal has always been vulnerable on hard courts to flat ball hitters with tons of power, but Tsonga's performance was ridiculous in the way he combined power and touch. Nadal had no chance, especially once it was clear that his patented and potent backhand passing shots down the line were just being drop-volleyed for winners every time.
The second semi somehow upstaged the first, a feat deemed nigh impossible after Tsonga's triumph, but any time the dominant figure in the game and suggested best of all time loses, it's the story of the tournament. Roger's illness before the Open, which prevented him from playing any warm-up tournaments, proved ultimately fatal to his chances in Melbourne, as his normal quickness and athleticism seemed to be lacking just enough for him to be vulnerable. Of course, only the Serbians were able to expose this vulnerability, with Djokovic proving more adept than Tipsarevic at taking down # 1. Novak learned from his loss to Federer in the U.S. Open final, and realized he would have to be able to capitalize on his few chances. He did. And he won in straight sets. Amazing.
So now we have an interesting matchup with Djokovic and Tsonga in the final, where, one would think Novak is the prohibited favorite, but I'm done betting against the Frenchman. Will be fun to watch.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Australian Open Semis Nearly Set...
With the women's semifinals set and only Federer-Blake in the men's quarterfinals still to be decided, let's take a quick look at the final fours and see if we can unearth a little perspective, perhaps even a bit of insightful commentary.
The focus in the U.S. is understandably on the disappointment of having both Williams sisters lose in the quarters, but in reality, the story should be more about the winners of those two matches: Serbians Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic. Both young starlets are looking to build on fantastic 2007s by launching successful '08 campaigns, and respective births in the semis is a great way to start. However, Jankovic will take on the very "in-form," extremely confident Russian Maria Sharapova, who dismantled world #1 Justine Henin in their quarterfinal match, 6-4, 6-0, and getting through to the final will be an extraordinarily tall order for a somewhat ailing and tired Jankovic. Ivanovic will be favored against Daniela Hantuchova, but there are no gimme semifinal victories, so the will have to be focused and on her game to reach her second career grand slam final in less than a year (she lost to Henin in the '07 French Open final). A Sharapova-Ivanovic final would be the most attractive (literally) matchup between two big hitters in the six foot and over club, but an all Serbia matchup would present yet another exciting installment in that country's ever-growing tennis legend.
Assuming Federer disposes of Blake tonight, the men's semifinal would have the 1, 2, and 3 seeds (and consensus top three players in the world, with a wide gap between 3 and 4) welcoming in unseeded newcomer JW Tsonga to the final four. Federer-Djokovic would be the match everybody wants to see and talk about, but Rafael Nadal has a chance to get to his first hard court slam final and really cement his transformation into more than just a clay-court dominator. The mens semis will also present fascinating storylines for the other three individuals, from the quest of the world's greatest player seeking to dispel sudden suggestions of his "vulnerability," to the hottest young all-court talent (and also Serbian) in the game, to the enthralling young Frenchman playing the tournament of his young career, with house money and nothing to lose. Should be great theatre, as much of this tournament has already been. And who knows, maybe James Blake will shock the world...
Right now, Djokovic looks unbeatable and should be almost an even money pick against Federer, as crazy as that sounds. Nadal is only a slight favorite against Tsonga, but should be waiting in the Final on Sunday. I'll be back with finals previews for both the men and the women, once those matches are set. Exciting stuff, to be sure.
The focus in the U.S. is understandably on the disappointment of having both Williams sisters lose in the quarters, but in reality, the story should be more about the winners of those two matches: Serbians Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic. Both young starlets are looking to build on fantastic 2007s by launching successful '08 campaigns, and respective births in the semis is a great way to start. However, Jankovic will take on the very "in-form," extremely confident Russian Maria Sharapova, who dismantled world #1 Justine Henin in their quarterfinal match, 6-4, 6-0, and getting through to the final will be an extraordinarily tall order for a somewhat ailing and tired Jankovic. Ivanovic will be favored against Daniela Hantuchova, but there are no gimme semifinal victories, so the will have to be focused and on her game to reach her second career grand slam final in less than a year (she lost to Henin in the '07 French Open final). A Sharapova-Ivanovic final would be the most attractive (literally) matchup between two big hitters in the six foot and over club, but an all Serbia matchup would present yet another exciting installment in that country's ever-growing tennis legend.
Assuming Federer disposes of Blake tonight, the men's semifinal would have the 1, 2, and 3 seeds (and consensus top three players in the world, with a wide gap between 3 and 4) welcoming in unseeded newcomer JW Tsonga to the final four. Federer-Djokovic would be the match everybody wants to see and talk about, but Rafael Nadal has a chance to get to his first hard court slam final and really cement his transformation into more than just a clay-court dominator. The mens semis will also present fascinating storylines for the other three individuals, from the quest of the world's greatest player seeking to dispel sudden suggestions of his "vulnerability," to the hottest young all-court talent (and also Serbian) in the game, to the enthralling young Frenchman playing the tournament of his young career, with house money and nothing to lose. Should be great theatre, as much of this tournament has already been. And who knows, maybe James Blake will shock the world...
Right now, Djokovic looks unbeatable and should be almost an even money pick against Federer, as crazy as that sounds. Nadal is only a slight favorite against Tsonga, but should be waiting in the Final on Sunday. I'll be back with finals previews for both the men and the women, once those matches are set. Exciting stuff, to be sure.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Big Moment for Nadal
Rafael Nadal is into a hard-court grand slam semi-final for the first time, and has gotten there without dropping a set through the first five rounds of the Australian Open. Heavy favorite to win the next grand slam, the French Open, of which he is a three-time defending champion, and a good bet to reach the final for a third consecutive year at Wimbledon, this result in Australia represents a defining move forward for the dynamic Spaniard. While Federer is the undisputed king of tennis, Nadal's improvement on all surfaces can only be good for the sport, and great for the next few years of what is already tennis' best rivalry. Here's hoping for one more win for Rafa, so that a Federer-Nadal final can again be presented to the eager public.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/aus08/news/story?id=3207662
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/aus08/news/story?id=3207662
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Aussie Open!
Well the first Grand Slam of 2008 really got interesting over the weekend, especially on the men's side, as four marquee matches were decided in dramatic five-setters. Kohlschreiber beat Roddick, Blake beat Grosjean, Federer beat Tipsarevic, and Hewitt beat Baghdatis. You read that right: Federer was pushed to five in the 3rd round, and had to outlast the game Serb 10-8 in the final set, in a truly epic match. The Hewitt victory was noteworthy for finishing at 4:33am Melbourne time and the Roddick loss was suffered despite a career-high 42 aces from the American. James Blake won in the fifth set for only the second time in his career, and came from 2 sets to love down for the first time. Blake trailed Grosjean 4-1 in the 4th set and rallied back to win in a tiebreak, setting the stage for a strong finish in what has to be labeled the best win of his career. With Vince Spadea a longshot against David Ferrer today, Blake is the last hope for the American men, and has a good look at getting through to the quarters with a match against 19 yr old Marin Cilic from Croatia.* Roddick's early exit has to be called disappointing, and he needs to really go back to the drawing board on his overall game outside of his serve.
That Federer was the story yesterday is nothing new, but the plot of that story was unusual. Rarely is Federer pushed to five sets in slams, and when he is (Wimbledon '07, Australia '05) it must surely be in the semis or final. We definitely don't expect to see a 10-8 in the 5th score line for the Lord of the Swings (thanks Bud Collins) in the thirdround. But Tipsarevic was attacking from the first point, and Roger was not at his best with the forehand, and the match was a true epic dogfight. Federer's ridiculous serving won it for him in the end (career high 36 aces!), and he added another notch to his clutch belt, proving that he can still beat you in a to-the-distance slugfest, even when he's up in the 40+ unforced errors realm. Last year we had to wait for the Wimbledon final for the defining match of '07 when Federer outlasted Nadal in an awesome five-setter, but this match last night is going to be hard to top for the rest of '08. It was that good. Although I'm optimisitc for some even brighter fireworks in both the French and Wimbledon, especially if the top two players are able to navigate their way to the finals for the third year in a row. Now that would be special. But hey, maybe we'll get lucky and get an early preview of "the rivalry" if Rafa can get through to the last night in Melbourne.
So far, so good in '08.
* This point has been made by some TV analysts, but it deserves more attention: what if Yugoslavia were still one country? Between the studs in Serbia and the rising stars in Croatia (and I'm sure there's some Bosnian or Montenegran up and comers out there), if Yugoslavia were still one nation, they would undoubtedly be the strongest tennis nation in the world. France, Russia, Spain, and Argentina would have something to say about that, but there's no doubt that the talent emerging out of the Balkan region is a force to be reckoned with.
That Federer was the story yesterday is nothing new, but the plot of that story was unusual. Rarely is Federer pushed to five sets in slams, and when he is (Wimbledon '07, Australia '05) it must surely be in the semis or final. We definitely don't expect to see a 10-8 in the 5th score line for the Lord of the Swings (thanks Bud Collins) in the thirdround. But Tipsarevic was attacking from the first point, and Roger was not at his best with the forehand, and the match was a true epic dogfight. Federer's ridiculous serving won it for him in the end (career high 36 aces!), and he added another notch to his clutch belt, proving that he can still beat you in a to-the-distance slugfest, even when he's up in the 40+ unforced errors realm. Last year we had to wait for the Wimbledon final for the defining match of '07 when Federer outlasted Nadal in an awesome five-setter, but this match last night is going to be hard to top for the rest of '08. It was that good. Although I'm optimisitc for some even brighter fireworks in both the French and Wimbledon, especially if the top two players are able to navigate their way to the finals for the third year in a row. Now that would be special. But hey, maybe we'll get lucky and get an early preview of "the rivalry" if Rafa can get through to the last night in Melbourne.
So far, so good in '08.
* This point has been made by some TV analysts, but it deserves more attention: what if Yugoslavia were still one country? Between the studs in Serbia and the rising stars in Croatia (and I'm sure there's some Bosnian or Montenegran up and comers out there), if Yugoslavia were still one nation, they would undoubtedly be the strongest tennis nation in the world. France, Russia, Spain, and Argentina would have something to say about that, but there's no doubt that the talent emerging out of the Balkan region is a force to be reckoned with.
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